Replacing a 25 year old water heater, electric vs tankless debate

Our 40 gallon electric heater finally gave out after 25 years in our Albany house, so I priced out a tankless unit at $1,800 installed versus $900 for a standard tank. The plumber swore tankless pays off in energy savings, but our family of four uses hot water in bursts, not all day, so I'm not convinced the extra cost makes sense. Anyone here done the switch and actually tracked their utility bills before and after to settle this?

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